Europunditry

This blog's mission: Thoughts on developments in the EU, developments in world politics, and lots more.

This page is powered by Blogger. Isn't yours?



Tuesday, June 10, 2003
 
Europundit.com is live. I HAVE ESCAPED BLOGGER HELL.

HOORAY!

Go here, adjust your bookmarks etc.

Monday, June 09, 2003
 
I will soon move over to www.europundit.com, and use MT!!!!!!!!!

And it's all thanks to the great Dean Esmay!!!!!!!

Sunday, June 08, 2003
 
Lately, I have had more incoming permalinks than I have visits per day. How weird is that? I guess you could spin it like I'm a blogger's blogger. Eh.

Friday, June 06, 2003
 
Today's National Day. We have a very laidback attitude to it, the very opposite of Yank style flag-waving. It's not even a holiday. People have talked about making it a holiday for a hundred years, but we've never got around to it. Now the Riksdag has decided to make it one in 2005, but they couldn't decide which other holiday it should replace, so the silliness continues.
Some Swedes like to whine about us being less chest-thumping than other people, saying we lack self confidence. I would very much say it's because of our high national self confidence that we are so laid back about these things.

Anyway, today was appropriately glorious, the sun shone and the sky was cloudless. As usual. This guy seems to be saying that the sun is objectively brighter and the sky bluer here in Sweden. At any rate, I've never heard anyone, Swede or foreigner, describe the Swedish summer in less than superlative terms.

I feel I ought to pay tribute to the greatness of Sweden somehow, I think this other post by Sterfan Geens (who I will put on the 'roll) shows Sweden at its finest.

 
This article about the Czech runup to the referendum makes several interesting observations.

 
I've added a bunch of weblogs, and a new category. I need better names for my categories.

Wednesday, June 04, 2003
 
This guy had a great idea:

"I've got Site Meter to register how many people visit.Also www.downes.ca.
The massive discrepancy between the two is astonishing.Sitemeter reports 6 a day and downes 400!
PLEASE do me a big favour.
If you read this, please just add your name or number to the comments form then I know what is working."

The discrepancy between Sitemeter and WebStat isn't as massive, but I really would like to know how many readers I actually have. Could you please please pretty please just add your comment?

Tuesday, June 03, 2003
 
Look what I found: http://www.bonde.com/ Danish eurosceptic and convention delegate JensPeter Bonde has a site with news and analysis on the Convention from a eurosceptic perspective. This is a great compliment to the other news sources. It's stridently partisan of course, but not to the point where it's useless.

 
Damn.

"According to a YouGov poll in the Mail on Sunday, 51% of Britons said withdrawal from the EU was preferable to the "surrender" of further powers to Brussels.

That was against 29% who said Britain should accept a loss of power in order to stay in the union. "


One shouldn't make too much of this of course. If the phrasing hads been a little different, if it had been made a week earlier or later the results may have been completely different. Most iportantly if the question was preceded by an election campaign or simply more reflection than two seconds, people would have answered differently.

But it reveals that people are receptive to the idea of withdrawal. It's within reach, so to speak.

Monday, June 02, 2003
 
Added Katryn Cramer. Reciprocity. Sees like a nice, well-written blog.

 
Until yesterday, there were reasons to wonder if the convention would be able to come to an agreeent about the institutional disagreements, after the draft bypassing them. But now it appears an agreement has been reached and will be announced today. It seems clear Giscard D'Estaing and the big countries will basically get what they want, a Council president, but what copensation the smaller countries and the supranationalisrts will get, and any details of the deal, are still a mystery. We'll soon find out, though.

 
There has been a lot of talk about the rift that the Iraq war has caused in Europe, and also about enlargement, what the long-term consequences will be, with a some people, especially Americans saying there's a risk of crisis, and that the Union will be divided and dysfunctional etc. There's one in my estimate strong indication that they're wrong: Look at the Convention. Divisions have not at all been on the lines of "old" or "new" Europeans, but between small and big states and between intergovernmentalists and supranationalists. The actors have taken positions out of what they think is right, and what they perceive is in their interest. And that's how things will be.

The Common Foreign and Security Policy have been weakened, but no one has ever imagined nations would take common positions on every issue. I think the Convention also demonstrates there's a lot of agreement, and a strong will to work together and move forward. Integration and reform has been continued at a rapidly accelerated pace. If the issues of division of power between institutions, between the nations, and the future shape of the EU aren’t causing paralysis, why would fishing disputes or whatever?

There'll probably be friction between France and the Central Europeans, but what people have missed is that the group of eight's letter was not the only cause of divisions, but mostly something that brought divisions to the surface. In my opinion, it's not so much because of any particular irreconcilable differences; rather it's part of a long-term trend. Starting about five years ago nations stopped deciding almost everything by unanimity. This has to do with the growing number of members and with the increase of decisions taken on the EU level. Indeed, it's also because national sensitivities have decreased, and issues aren't looked at only from the national perspective or as national horse-trading, so therefore acceptance has grown of majority voting. Also, the group of eight's letter was a reaction to French-German hegemonic tendencies, but remember the reaction was because the French-German engine had been revived after being dead 1997-2002. Changing alliances aren't an impediment to progress or "ever closer union."

So what we will see is these trends continuing, and being reinforced by, enlargement and further integration. More open divisions, and factionalism, but not so much divisions between any set camps, rather division on an issue-for-issue basis, and not so much one nor two power centers, though France-Germany still will be a power center in many instances. And I don't think it will put any brakes on integration.

The last six or eight years saw these trends starting, and at the same time integration has not just continued, but at an accelerating pace. These were also the years of the Commission losing power and initiative to the Council (the national governments.) Integration is not driven by ideology or by some long-term federalist strategy. Rather, it's the product of a thousand smaller decisions. Rather, it's driven by "historical forces", by a situation where every further step makes sense, by a self-reinforcing logic, and because there are significant factors acting to slow or stop integration. Rather, it's because of a general receptiveness to integration.

By the evidence of the Convention, plus my general knowledge of the Candidate countries, I don’t see enlargement seriously working against these trends, though if the constitution will be a drastic step, it may cause a temporary breathing pause. I don't see anything else seriously slowing the process either in the foreseeable future. (Granted, in these matters, that's hardly longer than a decade as I see it.)

That begs the question when will it stop? I don't think this gradualist, often not noticed by the public, process can't possibly continue to the point where suddenly we find ourselves citizens of a federal state. At some point something's gots to give. When and how that will happen, I have no idea. Everything about the EU's development is so gloriously uncertain and unprecedented, which is why it's so fascinating.

(Actually, things are already changing, integration is no longer mostly by stealth or couched in bureaucratic terms, and there's a debate about what the final goal is.)

I started out sounding like I defended the EU from its detractors and now I sound almost like a eurosceptic. I should note that one explanation for the success of "Ever closer union" is that it simply makes sense, because of increasing interdependence etc. But the problem is, no one bothered involving the public, or at least didn't succeed.

Sunday, June 01, 2003

 
Via the Sceptic, a New Yorker article about Congo I've managed to miss.

Added the Sceptic to my blogroll. Yes, because of reciprocation, bt this one ight be a keeper, or at least a blog I will continue read. Go read it; it's a real good blog.

 
Bloggers on the draft:

Did I ever link to Chris Bertram's latest post? Good stuff. Here he argues that judicial activism is bad. I agree, will maybe expand on that. Here he links to conflicting takes on the constitution.

Lots of rightwing EU opponents have written comments that aren't worth responding to. They think EU is now a 'superstate', tone is raving and also quite unpleasant. These people appears to be completely mindless. It's very disconcerting. Especially vile is a certain group who ranted about "federasts."
By the way, please note that I'm sympathetic to opposition to the EU, I'm always close to lapsing in my faith in rightness of unification, and I am certainly sceptical.

Non-mindless commentary from opponents:
Edge of England's sword. He doesn't really engage the issue though, takes the wrongness of the EU as a given, and discuss strategic implication for British opponents.
Bargarz. He links to others too, that I haven't checked out. (Bloggered, so scroll down.)Not the right critique. Very wrong and misguided, but something worth debunking, not screeching. And his quotes from Den Beste + others (except me of course!), who tell us we Euros apparently have a slave mentality. Will perhaps respond if I find time and energy, but that's unlikely.

Henry again. Read it. And the earlier comments.

Jeff Jarvis thinks the draft isn't poetic enough. Matthew Yglesias agrees. My take: Who cares?
Jarvis points out other things that I agree are flaws, though minor.

Kathryn Kramer thinks the Bush admin is trying to derail the convention. She doesn't really tells us why she thinks so. I'm open to being persuaded.
I haven't read these yet:

Diplomatica. Long. Seems cogent.

Scott Martens Should be interesting if I know Scott. Long and digressive.

Scott thinks me + Junius + Gallowglass were pretty critical. So does Matthew Yglesias (though he doesn't mention me Grrr.), who even have been been convinced that the draft "as written is pretty bad." But... We weren't that critical! In fact, we've all ostly analyzed, not said if it's good or bad. Huh?

Friday, May 30, 2003
 
Via Ibidem, who I have added to the blogroll, a behind-the scenes article article about the group of Eight letter and all that, from FT, but via NYT, so you can read it tomorrow too.

 
I'm gonna get my own domain and switch to MT and all of that, but I have no idea what hosts are any good or how much bandwidth I need. Anyone have any advice?

I was thinking Hosting Matters, and then they went down... But that's not usual right? I don't know anything.

 
Added Diplomatica and EuroSavant to the blogroll.

I now have RSS feed via BlogMatrix.

Link policy

I haven't had a need for one until now, but maybe I'm getting popular (wishful thinking) so...

I will blogroll anyone who blogrolls to me for two-three weeks and then evaluate if it's of any interest to me and my readers. Your blog should be both well-written and dealing with the right topics (or else be really well written.) If it's not, I'll remove it, since I want a relatively small high-quality blogroll. (Linking to me will still give you major bonus points.) There's some semi-daily reads like CalPundit and Talking Points Memo that I still don't blogroll, so you shouldn't feel too offended if I remove you.

 
Amygdala blogs about Congo:

"INSIGNIFICANT UN MOVE ON CONGO reported.

The force of about 1,200 troops, whose mandate runs until Sept. 1, will be led by the French and will include a substantial contingent of South African troops.
Matthew Yglesias, who perhaps has not made much study of military matters, otherwise inexplicably calls this "good news," seeming not to recognize that it means nothing, given that a force numbered minimally in the tens of thousands, with major air support, and armor, is needed to accomplish any pacifying. 1,200 troops is nothing but a joke. A, dare I say it, extremely black joke."

I think it could lead to a more ambitious effort later, so there's still reason for hope. I see (via Matt Yglesias) that John Cole makes the same point. Still, there was a talks of a larger force before (as I reported) so I wouldn't call it that good news exactly, but news with a silver lining.

Thursday, May 29, 2003
 
Fantagraphics Books, arguably the world's premier publisher of comics and graphic novels must raise $80,000 in the next month or face a possible bankruptcy. They have therefore called on comics lovers to buy stuff from them, preferable from their website. I don't know if any of y'all are coics lovers, but they publish some of the greatest artists working in any artform. Daniel Clowes, Chris Ware, Peter Bagge, Jaime Hernandez, Gilbert Hernandez, Frank Woodring, Robert Crumb, George Herriman (reprints of Krazy Kat.) Everyone should read Krazy Kat.

 
You should be reading Henry Farrell's thoughts on the draft. More authorative than the news paper reports. A must read if you're interested in these things.

This BBC piece on the draft is one of the better ones. Especially since it goes into specifics more than most. (Via Chris Bertram.)

Wednesday, May 28, 2003
 
First thoughts on the draft: Giscard had to retreat, and thank god for that. So, they just ignored the major issues, the institutional issues. One wonders, if they haven't been able to agree at this fairly late date, will they ever? Will there be two versions or perhaps no version, in the sense that they'll bypass the contentious issues, ie most of it? Were in fact the asumptions that the assumptions that the convention would play a minor role wrong, wrong? That is, will the great convention experient be grandiose (partial, still valuble, but still) failure?

Another possibility is that since the federalists stopped Giscard in the praesidium, and they dominate the convention backbenchers, they will win?

I'll read and comment the whole damn thing at some point, and also say why I like/dislike all the different ideas flouting around, and I'ma do a primer for all the people who've no idea what I'm talking about right here. Yeah, in 2005 or thereabouts.

Update: Why did I trust prewss reports to get things right? Anyway, I've started reading the thing.

 
Henry Farrell thinks I'm wrong. I think he's misunderstood me somewhat, I didn't say there would be no change, I spoke specifically about positive rights. I do think there's a chance, likelihood even, of a change in the short term in the area of striking down laws and such: negative rights.

Or perhaps there will be a fair amount of forcing governments to provide this or that service, meaning positive rights. It will depend on what the charter contains, and the inclinations of the ECJ. I'm not as informed here as I'd wish. Anyway, the stuff that could theroretically give the court vast powers, but in the short term IMO will mean nothing, is a different set of paragraphs?

I'm somewhat out of my depth here, but still I will quibble with Henry.

First of all I maintain that what the text says isn't what's most important. On the other hand, it still is quite important.

Secondly, I would say for the last fifteen years or so, in the march towards "Ever Closer Union" the EJC have been taking smaller strides than the politicians and eurocrats. The EC have not led the way, they're not the vanguard anymore. I think that even if they start becoiming more aggressive, this will not change. They will not start a revolution. On the other hand, the trend still seems to be towards a further boost of the role of the judiciary.

Thirdly, I don't think a more aggressive stance is at all inevitable. Look at what they've done in the past, says Henry. Yes, but look at what they've done in the recent past, they've mellowed out. They're about to change and enlarge with the rest of us; ten new members. Not necessarily ardent interventionists. Central Europeans? Could it be the court will become (even) more timid?

Update: Gah, In hope noone read that before I corrected a certain major goof.
Update: Now I've done different kind of major goof and can't correct it. But nevermind...

Tuesday, May 27, 2003
 
Chris Bertram says:
"I don't know why the likelihood is small, especially if NGOs decide to pursue issues aggressively - which they probably will."

First I should emphasize that I'm just another moron with a website, and not really an expert. Maybe I'm totally off base. Nevertheless:

The court will be restricted by their own sense of jurisprudence, which of course will be influenced by the spirit of the times, again the political context.
The Court used to be very, very aggressive in expanding their reach. At one point they were the prime motor of integration. But as the politicians have increased the pace, the Court has gradually become less agressive. They are still slowly increasing their authority, however.
They will also be restricted by what they think they can get away with, meaning what the public and the politicians would be willing to accept. If they go too far, they risk a backlash, which might in the end undermine their authority. If they went really far, for example saying the Irish abortion ban was unconstitutional, there would be a constitutional crisis. I hardly think the Irish would accept that.
A lot of what they've done recently has been in the name of the common market. My impression is that The European Court of Human Rights have had a greater role in expanding human rights and such. That may change in the future.

My feeling is that neither the Court nor the governments are prepared for more than a quite moderate increase in judicial activism, in the sense of promoting positive rights. It's not in the cards, it's not likely to happen in the forseeable future, and it won't be before the political situation drastically changes.

My other point was that what the constitution says in is probably far from the most important factor in changing the political situation, in determining the status of the court. The US constitution (with very little in the way of positive rights) and for that matter the EU treaties doesn't give the Supremes or the ECJ more leverage than than most western constitutions, rather the opposite is true, and yet they're more powerful than most constitutional courts and the like. They disdn't start off all that powerful, the political situation changed. (Well, they changed it.)

Still, I shouldn't go too far. A constitution will surely make it less or more easy for the courts to usurp power (if you will.) Although the short term effects will be small, it's not an unimportant matter. It could turn out to make a huge difference at some future date.

 
I'm very unhappy, because my computer ate a whole bunch of half-finished stuff I was going to post.

 
I was gonna change the template, and it's a months old version of it. This really takes the prize.

Monday, May 26, 2003
 
Another has been reached in the drafting of the constitution.

It should be emphasised that a the drafting process is not over, someething a casual reading of a lot of the articles might lead you to believe. Euractiv explains:

"The Convention Praesidium presented the first complete draft of Part One of the EU Constitution on 26 May. The draft will be discussed for the first time by the 105 Convention members at their plenary session in Brussels on 30 and 31 May.

Background:
The European Convention, set up by the EU leaders in December 2001 to simplify the EU treaties, reform its institutions and bring the Union closer to its citizens, is now in its final phase during which it must find consensus on the draft Constitutional Treaty.

The Convention Praesidium presented the first outline of the future EU Constitution in October 2002. The Convention is due to propose its final draft to the Thessaloniki European Council on 20 June 2003. The EU would like to adopt the new Constitution in time to accommodate 10 new Member States in 2004."

Here is the draft (pdf file.) I'll go read the and hopefully, will have something intelligent to say later.

A lot of the text is a 'declaration of principles', vague but high-minded rhetoric type of stuff. Chris Bertram wonders if it will means anything or is just window dressing.

Theoretically, the European Court of Justice could use these provisions to enforce all kinds of policies, i.e. legislating from the bench. The South African constitution is full of the same things, and I don't know if anyone of the framers thought it meant something but their supreme court used it to force Mbeki to alter his (scandalous) AIDS policies. But that was a wholly different political situation, and I would say the likelihood of The European Court of Justice doing something like that is very small. Only in a vastly different context, in the far future could it be an issue. Afterall, the treaties the constitution will be replacing already had that kind of provisions.

Having positive rights (because that's what's it is) enshrined in a constitution is problematic, but it should be noted that the US, one of the countries with the least posive rights in their constitution still has the most interventionist, and sometimes acticvist, supreme court in the western world. It's all about the political situation.


Sunday, May 25, 2003
 
The Eurovision is certainly pan-European news. I won't try to explain it to non-euro readers but Kieran Healy makes a valiant attempt. It really has to be seen to be believed though.

I normally don't, I'd planned to watch this year though, because of TATU (though I share Kieran's disapproval to some extent) but have missed everything up to the last songs. Man, how I regret that now. From the recap, it's even better than usual; Austria's entry seems gloriously surreal even by Eurovision standards. But the best part is the hosts. They're banter is just... otherwordly.

Update: TATU lost. Turkey won. Belgium's entry was apparently in a mock language.

Saturday, May 24, 2003
 
Vote the Note.

Friday, May 23, 2003
 
Read this:
Battle for Bunia takes a terrible toll

Harrowing, from a reporter on the spot.

Ituri's Greek Cypriot Community Finally Flees

Who'da guessed?

 
Forgetful of its previous mistakes in nation building and distracted by Iraq, the international community risks failing Congo with potentially disastrous results, writes Simon Tisdall

"France - which was briefly and some would say disastrously involved in Rwanda in 1994 - is believed to be the country most likely to step in. In the House of Commons this week, Tony Blair supported the idea of such a force and said Britain was considering what contribution it might make. Much the same goes for other EU member states.

So far, so good? Not really. For a start, Congo is as large as western Europe. Its intractable problems go back years, with Ituri province being but the latest troublespot. An international force of several thousand soldiers, even armed with a robust UN mandate, will be unable to do much more than secure the immediate area, and rescue the UN observer mission known as Monuc.

Foreign troops may stop the fighting between the Hema and Lendu ethnic militias. But then what? They may find that they are stuck, unable to leave without precipitating a return to chaos.

To avoid that scenario, a new, concerted, presumably western-assisted or western-led drive on both political and diplomatic fronts will be required to achieve some sort of lasting internal as well as regional settlement.

An essential prerequisite for that is a programme of generous humanitarian and then reconstruction aid and investment. Who is going to provide it? And for how long? Britain's international development secretary, Clare Short, was until recently gamely wrestling with these issues, with some results. But she has lost her job and it is unclear whether her successor, Baroness Amos, will be as closely engaged."


 
The problem magically disappeared. Life is strange.

Thursday, May 22, 2003
 
I've got soe pretty bad personal news today. I don't know how uch energy I'll have for blogging. Too bad, case I really have a lot ton say. I was lining up for soe long substantive posts. Almost finished that "what I think about the EU" thing I promised, but now I can't be bothered. Later....

I've had serious problems with Blogger lately, but that'll have to wait too. I don't think I'll stick around long enough to give the new Blogspot a chance thogh. I've been burnt as far as Blogger.

 
Henry Farrell blogged two days ago about Israel becoming an EU member, an idea some Israeli politicians sometimes like to flout. The Head Heeb wrote about this back in December. He explains the political context and discusses the ramifications and the arguments for and against; from the Israeli perspective, where he does a good job, and the European perspective, where I think both he and Henry misses what it comes down to:

Do you like or dislike the prospect of the European Union turning into the Global Union, maybe even morphing into a future One World Government? Israel does not lie in Europe. If you discard the geographic criteria, and make it all about values or whatever, what legitimate arguments do you have against excluding a future democratic Iran? And then why not Pakistan? And then why not India?

Now, you may say: that's never gonna happen, be serious David. I don't think you should be so certain; it's just too far into the future. But okay, Indian membership is very far off. However, it's quite likely various Arab states, and very possibly Iran will, in the distant but not too distant future, become democracies and then ask for membership. (Sadly, it's not necessarily more distant than an end to the Palestinian issue, that must be resolved before an Israeli membership.) I don't think we will let Israel in unless we'll also accept the possibility of lots of Muslim nations joining. Edward Hugh would approve, but I don't think neither our leaders nor the electorate are prepared to do that, and don't know if they ever will.

 
Not to discount the three-four people who's still here. Much love!

 
All my readers has somehow disappeared. That is very depressing, especially since I think Europunditry has never been as good as it is right now. I mean, I can honestly recommend people to read it.

For the first time since I started blogging I'm only partially dissatisfied with the blog, and all my readers abandon me? Life sucks.

Wednesday, May 21, 2003
 
Just as I was lamenting the lack of reporting, lots of reports were being filed. But it still gets a lot less attention than what is reasonable. The reports play down rather than play up the genocide angle for whatever reason.

Even good ol' EUobserver has the story:

EU foreign policy chief, Javier Solana, presented Mr Annan's request to defence ministers from the member states. After discussions over lunch, ministers decided to task Mr Solana with drafting a response for the Secretary General.

The French government has already said it is willing to send troops, it now looks like more EU states are ready to back the move.

Irish Defence Minister, Michael Smith, stunned journalists by saying that he "would not be surprised to see Irish troops in the Congo in the not too distant future".

Hinting that this could happen without UN backing, the Minister said his government would need to look at changing current legislation which bars Irish peace keeping missions without a UN mandate, in case the EU wants to act without UN backing.

Sometimes, he said, "we seem to be coming after the holocaust" referring to the EU's inability to act in south east Europe, adding that peacekeeping is "probably one of the most noble things people can do".

Greek Diplomats told the EUobserver that Athens, which currently holds the rotating presidency of the EU, also "strongly supports EU involvement".


The UK government’s position is not yet clear although diplomats say the proposal has found some favour in London.


So it seems certain an intervention will happen.

I don't think I exagerrated in talking about a profound shift. A cause for celebration.

And then I read this:

However, it would be a question of "months not of days," [Solana] said.

There's genocide warnings now. "Months" from now it may very well be too late. Why???

One could theorize this is a consequence of the much talked about alleged Euro underfunding of our militaries, or alternatively all the funding having gone to huge stationary armies, made for fighting the Warzaw pact, and no rapid deployment capabilities. But surely France and Britain at least have the capacity to react much quicker if they really wanted to, so it must be at least partially a question of priorities.

Monday, May 19, 2003
 
Here's an extremely important, extremely underreported, and extremely frightening story:

Ethnic clashes in the Democratic Republic of the Congo have observers warning of a possible genocide in a nation that has already seen the worst of Africa's bloody wars. According to DRC's L'Avenir, a U.N. official in the region declared that without decisive action, the area could be headed toward a blood bath.
[...]
Papers said the violence in Bunia appears to prove many observers' greatest fear—that the withdrawal of foreign troops would create a vacuum, sending the region into a spiral of ethnic violence. The two tribal groups fighting in Bunia—the Lendu and the Hema—have long battled over land and resources. Congo's civil war, which raged throughout the 1990s, fueled the groups' bitter rivalry. Lendu militiamen reportedly flooded into Bunia once the Ugandan troops left; days later, Hemas drove the Lendus out.



The lack of attention to Congo's troubles in the past is a scandal in itself. But for the world to ignore a possible genocide and do nothing would be unforgivable. Rwanda cannot be allowed to happen again.

However, there are reasons for hope:

U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan has asked the Security Council to form a "coalition of the willing" to halt the violence in eastern Congo. France has already said it will send troops but wants to see other countries do the same. France's Le Figaro reported that Britain has indicated a willingness to help and that the French and British foreign ministers are set to meet soon in the region. The paper added, "After the serious divisions created by the Iraqi crisis, [this] could allow London and Paris the beginnings of reconciliation." Congo's L'Avenir newspaper reported that Canada and South Africa have also said they will help with the formation of an international intervention force.



It almost looks like things have changed. Without prompting from the media or public opinion, or a strong national interest, these nations are prepared to commit troops for an extensive humanitarian intervention, redeeming themselves after the shameful abandonement of Rwanda. That would constitute a profound shift in international relations, a whole new set of rules. Please God let it happen, and let it be a success, and not a Black Hawk Dawn on a bigger scale.

There’s an EU angle to this, by the way. This could do wonders to French-British relations, to Euro self-esteem and therefore to the common foreign policy and defence policy.

Even knowing how the media works, it’s shocking how little attention this is getting. Maybe the genocide warnings are overblown. But then, maybe they’re not?

Update: I fixed all the typos right after I posted, (my keyboard is broken) but somehow something went wrong. I guess I screwed up, but on the other hand Blogger has been really, really screwy lately. I'm definitely switching, maybe as soon as this week.

 
Brought back "new and improved" permalinks. I've resigned myself to republishing all the time. This'll probably hasten a switch to MT though.

Sunday, May 18, 2003
 
The federalists enthusis for a referendum might be because it's linked in their mind to the idea

 
Not sure what I think abot this whole combined referendum idea..... I'm kinda fond of representantive democracy, and dislike the idea that referends are somehow more democratic, and think they should be used very judiciously, on the other hand if it's a question of relinquishing more than a small amount of sovereignty - we don't know that for sure yet - and the political party structure can't effectively deal with the issue (Say if 75% of parliament is in favor or divisions don't go along partisan lines) a referendum is probably appropriate.

In any case, one has to wonder how many of the people who wants a referendum know what they're asking for? Soetimes, as with the western establishent in Bosnia in the nineties, people seems to forget what elections are for. Do they want a referendum becase they think it will make everyone come together, and start loving the EU, and ake the democratic deficit magically go away? But a referendum is not a giant kumbaya singalong, it's about making a choice. Are they prepared to face that people will make the "wrong" choice?

Whatever the principal stance one has, it should be obvious it'll be major headaches. A referendum will likely be about general disatisfaction rather than the issues in most countries, like Ireland's Nice vote. Attendance will almost certainly be very low in the new member countries and others too. With 24 countries, it seems improbable the yes side will win in every country. And then what? I bet they won't just scrap the constitution, so why hold a vote then?

Governments know this and I really can't see it happening, though it's gathering momentum. It could mean referndus in some more countries than Ireland and Denmark (who always have one, when there's a treaty change.)

Saturday, May 17, 2003
 
Meanwhile, Slovakians says yes... and turnout seems to've narrowly passed the threshold - hopefully.

 
Hmmm... on second thought I don't wholly agree with Brad on democracy thing, but he has a point. No energy to elaborate.

The promised "substantive" post, basically me outlining my position on the EU and the democratic deficit will have to wait til Monday, cause noone's online til then anyway.

Friday, May 16, 2003
 
Long sbstantive post on the way. Eventually... sigh.

 
June Carter Cash dies at 73.

How rotten life is. Johnny Cash has been dying for like two years, he can't hae much time left, and he still has to live through this. And think of the children. It's so unfair...

She was one of the greats in her own right, in no way just Johnny's wife or one of the sisters. Such a loss... Well, she had very enviable life in many ways, at least.

Her work will always live on.

 
Only two weeks until the work on constitution will be finished, and few things are settled or certain to pass. History in the making, very draatic etc... I regret abandoning EU news for the last weeks, I plan to very much change my ways, however. More later.

Thursday, May 15, 2003
 
I managed to miss my one onth anniversary on the ninth. Boohoo.

Another milestone will soon be reached, though. One visitor away from 500 (accoding to SiteMeter). Hooray!

Update: 500. Hip Hip - Hooray! Hip Hip - Hooray! Hip Hip - Hooray! Hip Hip - Hooray!

 
"After all, throughout all of the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, the only choices history offers on its menu are chaos, dictatorship, and multi-party representative democracy. Try to undermine the third, and you have implicitly voted for either the first or second.

Democracy is not to be found in the streets. What we find in the streets are vanguard parties, the dictatorships they bring, and politics understood not as collective self-government but as expressive theatrical performances." Brad DeLong, apropos Argentine.

Hear, hear! He's not only right, he makes his so effectively it deserves to be the introductory qote to a book or something.

Brad despises Noam Chomsky as much as I do, too. Chomsky is a good example of how anarchist and totalitarians share the same mentality. Utopianism, intolerance, rejection of compromise, or deocratic imperfection. Anarchist, unlike pro-autochrats, are given the the moral highground by the mainstream. They're seen as naive perhaps, but not morally questionable. Yet they reject democracy. Anarchis, as in Chomsky's case leads to the same leads to the same stands and positions as autochratic sympathies. Chomsky's influence on leftists, Serbians etc. have been corroding democratic values.

 
I'm getting dissed!

 
The EUobserver poll idiocy reminded me of something I thought of before.

Romano Prodi has said a direct election of the Commission president would be a bad idea, with basically the same reasons as EUobserver (but less offensively put.) And, obviously that more power to the institutions isn't the answer. If so, how can it be tolerable that more and more decisions are getting made on the EU level? He actually admits, without meaning too, the severity of the democratic deficit, but still advocates more steps towards federalism and integration.

Tuesday, May 13, 2003
 
Blogger doesn't really have permalinks. I can't be bothered to republish all the time, so I've decided to remove the links, so as to not fool anyone - my Alexandrian solution.

 
I missed this sentence in Scott Grammel's old school post: "Parents do, on the whole, press their children to do well in school, and I don't think school enrolment will change if school ceases to be mandatory."
Eh, some of my criticism was a little off then, but not most of it. Note also, as I said I think enrollment would change.
Regarding his alternative plan, I don't know why he labels it "European."
Other than that I won't comment. (I have my hands full as it is!)
Scott was aused to be called a libertarian. In this particlar regard he is at least. He rightly noted "I don't think the positions he's arguing against are exactly the ones I took", but almost everything I said is still valid. He chose not to hasn't defended, which is most reasonable, but no fun. More later.


 
Since it seemed to work for every else, I brought back the comments. And it's working! (Fingers crossed.) Enetation, all is forgiven! (It's free after all.)

 
Lithuania voted yes to accession yesterday. Yay!

Monday, May 12, 2003
 
EUObserver draws far-reaching and absurd conclusions from a meaningless poll:
"An interesting experiment from a French opinion research agency, published by Le Figaro, has shown that EU voters would be likely to vote for a candidate from their own country in any future vote for an EU President.
This makes it difficult to envisage a fair or meaningful pan-European vote on the Constitution.
[...]
The Paris-based Ifop research agency ran an imaginary poll amongst the French people. Voters were asked whom they would like to see as President of the EU, but only one French name was on the list - that of former French President Valery Giscard d'Estaing, who is now the President of the Convention on the Future of Europe.
The French voted overwhelmingly in favour of Giscard, with 58 per cent, reported Le Figaro.
[...]
However, it is not clear what other names were on the list."

The headline is extremely telling: Voters not mature for EU-wide referenda

Obiously, no conclusions whatsoever can be drawn from the poll. But even a pan-european poll with name-recognition politicians would be meaningless, before there had been a election campaign. Most American voters pick Joe Lieberman among the Democratic presidential candidates because of name recognition, does that mean they're not "mature for" democracy?

Also, even if it were true that people wold vote along regional lines, what does that have to do with a referendum on the Constitution?

Don't know what's most appalling; the elitist anti-democratic bias or the staggering idiocy.

 
I plan to start link comment to EU news again, and finish writing something semi-substantive. More later.

The lack of attention to the European Union in the blogosphere as well as everywhere else is as I've said any times depressing, and a huge problem for European democracy. (well, the blogosphere part is only a tiny part of the problem of course, but you know what I mean.

 
Here's one of the abandoned unfinished posts I talked about two weeks ago:

Libertarian blogger Scott Martens have a radical suggestion: Make all education voluntary. An intriguing, and thoughtprovoking idea, but in my opinion severely misguided.
Problems with his argument:



  • First of all, he seems to assume parents would care what the kid wanted, a very odd assumption.

  • If this was implemented in Sweden, I think the number of drop-outs would be negligable. School stops being mandator at 16 and basically everyone attends gymnasium (16-19.)

  • However, in America, there are a lot of problem families among the poor, so I suspect there would be more dropouts at an earlier age than high school. (there are a few already, of course.) These persons would have basically no future. If they don’t turn to crime, they could never be more than the poorest of the working poor, and there’s a good chance IME that these menial jobs will largely dissappear.

  • No responsible parents will deprive their children of an education.

  • Scott claims (I guess) that no children who if they had a choice would not go to school, would not benefit from going to school. I claim that this is absurd. If some of these children would benefit, non-trivially, and in fact immensely, from getting an education, the decision should not lie with the child, that would be to betray the child. I claim that that is indeed the case, and that in fact any given child will potentally and likely benefit immensely from an education and there are no children that would benefit from not getting an education (except those with severe developental disabilities.)

  • Parents do not have the right to abuse their children, nor to deprive them of an education.

  • For a minor some forms of coercion isn’t just not a violation of one’s rights, it is a right. To not coerce would be to violate the child’s rights.

  • >>This has some clear advantages. The hardest thing in education is classroom management. Children don't always want to be in school, and keeping them there, beating into their heads how important it is that they learn, is little more than torture. It is much easier to work with children who want to be there.<<

  • Disruptive children, and generally those who demand much attention from teachers, would very likely be overrepresented among elementary or secondary school dropouts. Them droppping out would benefit the remaining children, but that is far, far outweighed by the cost of depriving the dropouts of education, both for the dropouts and for society.

  • The more direct method of not putting disruptive or slow-learning children in special classes, would achiee more of the benefits, at a far lesser cost. I think that method should be used very restrictively, but that’s another issue.

  • If (in some alternative universe) parents would allow their children to not go to scool, and a significant number of the wouldn¡¦t, the same applies, but with only somewhat greater positives and truly gigantic costs.

  • There would be no other benefits. After the year you turn sixteen, school is not mandatory in Sweden, and yet almost noone drops out. But that’s most definitely not because all of them wants to go to school, or enjoy the experience, it’s becase they have to to get a decent job. It’s not the government that forces people to go to school, it’s the demands of the marketplace and the modern economy.

  • Scott doesn’t like credentialism, and he thinks if people weren’t forced to go to school they would be happier, but making school non-mandatory would do nothing whatsoever to ameliorate those problems, his proposed solution has nothing to do with the problems.

I’ve only adressed part of Scott’s post. Next up is his assertions of school’s uselessness plus the tyranny of credentialism, after that where we agree and what my proposed solutions are.

So, it's still unfinished...

Sunday, May 11, 2003
 
Here's a terrific, knowledgeable blog by professor Juan Cole with analysis of devolopents in mostly Iraq and other Muslim countries. Called Informed Comment, not humbly but very aptly named.

 
Matthew Yglesias, like me, is not a vegan.

You say "the only question is do you support cruelty toward animals or not?" The point of what I'm trying to say is that this is not the only question. I, for example, strongly oppose cruelty toward humans. Nevertheless, I would not favor launching a full-scale nuclear war to wipe out the entire human race, even though this would drastically decrease the quantity of cruelty that human beings will endure over the entire course of history.
The aim of preventing cruelty only makes sense if we believe that life has some value, otherwise the simplest way to prevent cruelty will just be to have no life at all.
[…]
People eat cows because beef is tasty. The question is whether or not this is morally problematic. You say that it is problematic because in order to eat beef you have to kill the cow and treat it cruelly in a variety of other ways. I am suggesting that veganism, too, is morally problematic because its adoption would de facto eliminate cruelty to cows not by eliminating the cruelty but by eliminating the cows. It seems to me that if you consider the possibility of eliminating cruelty toward humans by eliminating humanity you will see that this is absurd.



I think Mathew is on to something, but the argument shold be rephrased. The question is: Why would turning doestic animals loose be doing them a favor? With egg and milk producing animals Matthew's example does a good job of showing why vegans are wrong, but not the ones we kill for eat. More later.

A drive to decrease nativity would not be

Saturday, May 10, 2003
 
We're all about underreported news here at Europunditry, and here's some news that may turn out to be a historical turning point, and this is the first time I've heard of it (maybe it's all over the news and I've simply missed it?)

Scientists in Pennsylvania yesterday said they had turned ordinary mouse embryo cells into egg cells in laboratory dishes -- an advance that opens the door to creating "designer" eggs from scratch and, if repeated with human cells, could blur the biological line between fathers and mothers.

The work undermines the standard model of parenthood because the scientists made egg cells not only from female cells, but also from male cells, indicating that even males have the biological capacity to make eggs.

If the science holds true in humans as in mice -- and several scientists said they suspect it will -- then a gay male couple might, before long, be able to produce children through sexual reproduction, with one man contributing sperm and the other fresh eggs bearing his own genes.

[. . .]

Until now, one argument for banning the creation of cloned embryos has been that it would require a huge supply of human eggs to make all the embryos and therapeutic cells that patients might need. That market demand could lead to an "egg-donor underclass" of poor women who might submit to repeated, health-compromising egg donation procedures as a way of making money.

But if scientists can grow lots of human eggs in the laboratory, experts said, that market would not appear. "Commodification and safety issues would be avoided," said Judy Norsigian, executive director of the Boston Women's Health Book Collective, who has been a leader in the movement against what is known as therapeutic cloning because of the risks it might pose to poor women.

[. . .]

Perhaps most astonishing, said Eppig of the Jackson Laboratory, the lab-reared egg and follicle cells apparently engaged in the complicated cross-talk required for normal development. Follicle cells surrounded each egg in a gentle embrace as they would in an ovary, for example, and even produced female hormones, which the eggs need to mature.

"I am flabbergasted that these darn things are making estrogen," Eppig said. "Imagine what's going to happen when you can do the same thing and make sperm."

The genetic program for making sperm is believed to be more complicated than for making eggs, but sperm farming may not be farfetched, Schoeler said. Success could raise interesting questions about the biological relevance of males.

If sperm can be made from stem cells, for example, then lesbians could make babies by sexual reproduction. Unlike gay men, they would not have to turn to the other sex to gestate those babies.

"It will take a nanosecond for people in same-sex relationships to figure out the potential implications of this research for them," said Murray, of the Hastings Center. "People can just fill in the blanks."



Via Silentio, which seems like a real good blog about among other things genetics.

 
New Yorker review of "How Democratic Is the American Constitution?" by Robert A. Dahl

Friday, May 09, 2003
 
Salam Pax has returned.

 
Via David Stevenson, a must read from NYT Magazine on nuclear proliferation.

 
It struck me Eurocentric has rather negative connotations, so I changed the name again.

Thursday, May 08, 2003
 
By the way, whatever happened to Maria???

 
Henry also writes about Christain fndamentalists thinking the EU is >>the "beast-kingdom" from which Antichrist will emerge in Final Days.<< and Berlusconi's legal troubles (Corruption charges, of course.)
>>It's going to be equally interesting to see how the European Union responds. /----/ However, there aren't any very good ways for other member states to deal with this sort of problem; while there are procedures for handling member states that have strayed from the path of democracy, it would be hard to invoke them against someone who has, after all, won office in a reasonably fair election. More likely, perhaps would be the kind of diplomatic deep-freeze applied to Austria after Joerg Haider's Freedom Party was invited into government - but this is widely perceived as having backfired. More on this as it develops ...<<

Re the fundie nuttiness, regardless of how long it's been going on, it's part of the shift in most of the American right-wing from disinterested approval of the EU to angry opposition (It's not just bloggers; the Cato institute recently said the US should pry Britain fro the EU.) All because of the recent Francophobia, combined with rightwing British Europhobia seeping through, and with it equating the EU with French dreams of power, and a general increase of (paranoid) awareness of anything threatening US hegemony. I wonder how this will play out re longter US-EU relations and effects on the EU, on the UK esp. etc...

 
I commented earlier how similar my literary tastes were to Henry Farrell's. Now he's heaping well-deserved praise on Little, Big and said it might be the greatest fantasy novel, which got e thinking.

It's not really the best way to show your preferences or building a canon or whatever since 1) so comparatively little of the greatest fantasy is in novel form, but 2) the preference of fantasy writers of writing a cycle of novels or stories that forms an artistic whole, (for example the Gormenghast books.)

So I usually make it easy on myself and refer to the dying earth books as my favorite piece of writing. (Maybe an odd approach there since they're hardly interrelated storywise and written over a 33 year span) (And yes, without qualifiers, and no, I'm not kidding, idiot snobs. I read and appreciate for exampe Borges, Fitzgerald, Auster, Coetze, and still rate Vance as the greatest.)

On the other hand this kind of listmaking shouldn't be taken too seriously anyway. So...

1. Cugel's saga - Jack Vance
2. Titus Groan - Mervyn Peake
3. Little Big - Crowley
4. Swords of Lankhmar - Leiber
5. The Book of the New Sun - Wolfe
6. Lud-In-The-Mist - Hope Mirrlees
7. Deerskin - Robin McKinley
8. Lyonesse - Vance
9. House On The Borderland - Hodgson

Wednesday, May 07, 2003
 
Real blogging (including posts actually dealing with the EU) will resume in the weekend, if not earlier.

 
Maria and Henry Farrell have switched to Movable Type and changed their adress in the process. As I said in the coments here, it's it's good to know some people have managed to get away from Blogger hell, maybe I can too some day. Let me take this opportunity to say that their blog is very good, a daily read in fact, and you should read it too.


 
Heh. I feel better now. The description change has gone through, even.

Monday, May 05, 2003
 
I can't change the wack ass blog description or any other of the settings. Do you have any idea how much that pisses me off?

Another thing: An big league blogger that I won't name, when rejecting an entry that I sent, told me my pertmalinks weren't working. DUH, that because Blogger DON'T HAVE fucking permalinks, they only PRETEND to have them, to MOCK US.

(don't get me wrong, I can't believe he took the time to answer me, whatta great guy.)

(Yes, I said fucking. I decided this isn't a family blog. I even went and edited in the 'fucks' in yesterdays post. I don't risk turning away any readers, because I don't HAVE any readers.)



 
Head Heeb posts (today, no permalinks on blogger sites) on the elections in Nigeria.

>>The election will solidify what many analysts are already calling Nigeria's "one-party creep." Some Nigerians are worried that the country might be headed the way of Mubarak's Egypt, but I think the more likely model is Malaysia. Like Nigeria, Malaysia is a federal state in which the ruling party is a coalition of diverse interests and elites whose ideology consists, in practical terms, of staying in power. A primarily Islamist opposition is strong in a few states, but the ruling party's hegemony is elsewhere disturbed only by a few small regional organizations.<<

My two cents:
The situation is very far from ideal but the likeliest alternative outcome, an even split betwween the parties would maybe have been worse some ways, since it would be a split between the north/muslim/ethnic group and the southern/christian/ethnic groups = conflict, even less acceptance That'll be much less pronounced since they doinate so much and in many northern states too.

A good thing is that the parties can't really
Also, if the ruling party will win solid majorities without for some years to come, without haing to cheat, eh I mean to completely rig the elections, or resort to complete autocracy (like Zimbabwe, or at least Zambia until recently, maybe that's a good thing. I mean - wouldn't they?

More silver lining is the parties aren't strictly split ethnically, esp. PDP.

The positives in Nigeria is that autocracy or a great escalation of ethnic conflicts doesn't seem imminent. The negatives is that the goernance is so poor and what they hae to work with isn't much, so the stability, the oppurtunities for improvements, will not lead to anything.

Yes, written in a rush.

His blog is one of my favorites by the way. Go read it.


Sunday, May 04, 2003
 
I'll keep blogging at half-speed for some days. Those longish half-finished posts won't get finished in a while. Sorry.

I'm a fairly productive blogger anyway. I gess I decided choosing quality over quantity, to some extent.

 
Here's a good review of the Lord of the Rings movie (except missing that LOTR was (among other things) a refutation of Wagner's Ring:

http://wsws.org/articles/2002/mar2002/lor1-m21.shtml

 
Congratulations to weblogger Ian Coleman, who just won election to the Cambridge City Coucil. He was the second first person to put me on his blogroll, and I haven't repaid him the favor until now. (Made me add new categories, which was a good thing anyway.)

He's a liberal too, so he's fighting the good fight!

Saturday, May 03, 2003
 
What the fuck?
EU to cut ties with Hamas
We had ties to Hamas??
>>...European Union special envoy to the Middle East Miguel Moratinos... "Hamas has been identified as a terror group by the European Union but there is a dialogue with its political arm, which is backed by Syria, Iran and part of the Palestinian Authority."<<
Oh that doesn't sound that bad...
>>"Hamas faces a clear choice between the Turkish model, of democratic Islam, and the Al-Qaida model."<<
Didn't it make that choice, like, when it was founded?
>>"If it chooses the second model, the EU will cut its ties, drop out support and end our aid to it."<<
Wait... "aid"? Does that mean aid as in my tax money goes to funding Hamas? It could mean something else I guess, and maybe the translation is off? Moratinos coments are in themselves offensive, as well as ludicrous. Not just him but the to some extent the EU loses credibility. But if we fund Hamas, that would be appalling.

What the fuck?

 
Various Volokh and Farrell people have been blogging about imaginary maps. Maybe they or someone will find this map of the Dying Earth a treat. I know I did. It's funny - those books are maybe my favorite piece of literature. (I think of them as a whole) and it wasn't that long ago since I last read them (gosh, it's been two years already) and I still could't connect most the places to scenes in the books, or trace people's journeys.

Everyone: read the Dying Earth books by Jack Vance. They're stunningly great.

 
So busy..... but I have a LOT of half-finished longish posts. Might post the late at night tonight, or tomorrow. Indulge me.

Update: Heh, it's already tomorrow.

Thursday, May 01, 2003
 
Here's a really great blog concentrating on international politics: Casus Belli. Go read it.

I found it through BlogStreet's "Neighbourhood" listing for my blog. BlogStreet is easily the best of its kind.

Wednesday, April 30, 2003
 
This line in a comment on CalPundit's blog sparked some thoughts:

"Measured by military and economic power, France's leverage is artificially increased by their SC veto, but so is Britain's."

And so is the United States. Or actuallly, it's not just the veto but rather UNSC membership, and UN membership generally. The UN is a huge amplifier of American power. Isn't it obvious that if the US quit the UN its power to influence other nations would decrease?

Meanwhile, I don't see how the UN is a constraint on US power. The cost of angering and alienating other nations is a constraint, but leaving the UN would exerberate that problem.

The UN can be seen as a tradeoff between the great powers and all the smaller nations, and since the United States is the lone superpower, particulary between the US and the other nations: the powerful take responsibility for imposing a modicum of order on the chaos and anarchy of international relations, (which is actually good for the powerful too), and in return the rules and agreeents will ber on the powerful's terms, and their power is amplified.

That's I guess the non-Idealist case for the UN, maybe not purely Realist, but thoroughly non-idealistic Idealist if you know what I mean. I don't see anyone making it, oddly enough, but from a US perspective isn't it more persuasive than the usual Liberal/Idealist argument?

 
Changed the name of the blog to reflect the new direction (what direction that is, I don't quite know yet.)

 
The US has signed a cease fire with the People's Mujahadeen. This is pretty disconcerting because it cold mean the administration is thinking of invading Iran.

The People's Mujahedeen, aka MEK, was one of the groups who opposed the Shah. As part of their struggle they killed several Americans in the seventies. They took part in the '79 revolution, and supported the takeover of the American Embassy in Tehran in 1979. When Khomeini seized power they strongly resisted and killed lots of mullahs but were struck down. They then stuck an alliance with Saddam (at war with Iran at the time.) and a force of currently 10 000 people have been in Iraq since, sometimes making incursions into Iran. They've also carried out assasinations and bombings against military targets inside Iran, killing plenty of civilian bystanders.

These aren't nice people: They have a fairly substantial following among emigrées (including a former classmate of mine) and have been known to make defectors disappear. They're hardly democrats, there's quite a cult of personality. They're somewhat odd: they mix marxism, nationalism, islamism, and after the fonder was succeeeded by his widow, feminism. It's uncertain if she, or the leader of the ared wing, the NLA, is in charge.

Here's what's weird: Despite being added to the State Department's list of terrorist organizations in 1997 and the Iraq connection, they have plenty of skilled lobbyists in Washington, and have any supporters in Congress, (there was an articlle in The Hill about it recently) and among anti-Iran hardliners in the foreign policy establishment. The US position have been oddly ambigious, and now seems to lean in favor of them. Now this is quite problematic, because you sort of lose the moral highground in the war against terrorism if you give "good" terrorist a pass. But what really worries me is something else.
A month ago Michael Crowley, writing in Slate, made a very keen observation:

"Whatever happens when American troops encounter NLA—either outside Baghdad or in northern Iraq—may offer a hint about Bush administration policy toward Iran (the third stop on the Axis of Evil Tour). If we leave the NLA brigade alone, it may signal that U.S. relations with Iran are likely to turn icy."

So when I heard they wrere bombed, I was relieved. Now I'm worried again. A reasonable guess is that the neocons and State had one of their battles over this and the neocons won. That should mean a more hardline stance towards Iran that will only strengthen the hardliners, and, especially considering other signals from the US recently, that war has definitely not been ruled out, and that's very scary. The Post article doesn't seem to be connecting any dots here, nor have any other article I've seen. Of course, it's possible this is the wrong reading of the situation, but people should be made aware of this.

Tuesday, April 29, 2003
 
An archeological sensation. Perhaps providing consolation after the loss of thousands of irreplaceable objects from ancient Mesopotamia in the recent looting.

Thank Providence, noone dropped a bomb on it.

 
This article by Matt Welch on Vaclav Havel is great. Read it.

 
Another thing I'm not sure of is how much I'll do 'primers' on the EU, 'what does CAP mean', etc? I'm thinking of going in that direction, but it depends on what audience I have. Do you already know those things? Do you even exist?

I need input!

Monday, April 28, 2003
 
Got rid of the comment system since it's not working. Will switch to something better soon.

 
I don't quite which direction to go with this blog....

I want to write more commentary, my own thinking. I do have some thoughts on what effects enlargement will have, plans to coment Democracy in Europe by Larry Siebentrop. Never get around to it.

My ambition has been to post on most if not all major news stories. It's a lot of work, not always very stimulating and I'm getting behind. But I feel there's a need for this kind of blog.

I didn't want to start yet another blog and post on whatever everyone else talks about (very seldom the EU). But that cuts e off fro all the back-and-forth and interaction with other blogs, and I have a lot of other interests than EU politics and have things to say. But I don't think I can do that AND cover everything that happens.

Everything would be a lot easier if I knew I had any readers, ie people who doesn't just visit once. I've been amazingly disciplined with doing updates considering. Esp. since I'm parthologically apathetic in everything else.

Feeling a little burned out.

 
Clicked on the link, and found myself in heaven.

Sunday, April 27, 2003
 
Usch.

Saturday, April 26, 2003
 
On a completely diffferent note, it's amazing how similar Henry's literary tastes and mine are it seems, both fiction and non-fiction.

 
Henry Farrell says:

Brad de Long gives extensive quotes from an article by Martin Feldstein in the FT, telling Britain to stay out of the euro. Feldstein accurately identifies himself as a long time skeptic of European economic and monetary union. He's less forthcoming about the precise nature of his skepticism, which goes (or at the very least used to go) far beyond the standard Optimal Currency Area nostrums that he cites in the FT piece. Feldstein wrote a quite notorious article in Foreign Affairs back in 1997, predicting that even though the EU was supposed to end all wars, the euro would likely lead to "increased conflict" among the EU's member states. What kinds of conflict? Well, "[a]lthough it is impossible to know for certain whether these conflicts would lead to war, it is too real a possibility to ignore in weighing the potential effects of EMU and the European political integration that would follow." Feldstein also ruminates darkly about Germany's aspirations towards European hegemony, citing Helmut Kohl's statement that "Germany is our fatherland, but Europe is our future" as being "not without ambiguity."


Feldstein's 1997 piece is deeply silly in the way that only breezy and over-ambitious articles for foreign policy journals can be silly. The EMU has led to tensions between member states, but not of the sort that Feldstein mutters about; his arguments display a deep and absolute incomprehension of what the EU is. They're interesting, however, as a harbinger of things to come. Their main trope is that there's something shifty about the European Union, which has to do with all the nasty things that went on in continental Europe during the 1930's. This of course has become one of the intellectual givens of US jingoists, who simultaneously see the Europeans as (a) effete tree-hugging peace-loving surrender monkeys, and (b) sinister, anti-Semitic conspirators on the way to recreating a European Reich-by-stealth. Believing both of these things at once is a rather impressive feat of intellectual gymnastics; Feldstein was one of the first people to show - by demonstration - that such gymnastics are possible, if you're sufficiently limber. Glenn Reynolds and the boys owe him a vote of thanks.


Sure but what about the issue? I'm not as pessimistic as Edward Hugh, but I think I will vote no in september.

Friday, April 25, 2003
 
Bonobo Land is a really great blog, go read it.

 
Via Brad DeLong, via Edward Hugh, Marty Feldstein in FT on the euro:

As Gordon Brown, the chancellor of the exchequer, considers whether adopting the euro would be in Britain's interest, he should look carefully at the experience of Germany. Membership in the monetary union has weakened the German economy and is preventing it from escaping its current slump. Although Germany also suffers from a variety of structural problems, it is the euro that raised its unemployment rate over the past year to 10.6 per cent. The German example shows that Britain's decision about adopting the euro is not a question of whether the time to do so is now right. Adopting the euro is a permanent commitment with permanent consequences. My judgment is that it would not be in Britain's long-term economic interest to accept the constraints of the single currency.

Here are the facts. Germany's gross domestic product rose only 0.5 per cent last year, the lowest of all the leading European countries, and ended the year in decline. Germany also has the lowest inflation rate, just 1.2 per cent. Because the single currency means that all eurozone countries have the same nominal interest rate, Germany's real interest rate is the highest in the eurozone. This is a very dangerous situation in which the high real interest rate weakens the economy and causes inflation to fall further. As the inflation rate falls, the real interest rate rises, creating the potential for a dangerous downward economic spiral.

If the German economy were not constrained by the single currency, natural market forces would cause interest rates to decline, thereby boosting all kinds of interest-sensitive spending. Weak demand in Germany would also cause the D-mark to decline relative to its trading partners, boosting exports and helping producers to compete with imports from the rest of the world. Instead, German manufacturing has been weakened by the sharp rise of the euro over the past year. In addition to these automatic market responses, an independent Bundesbank would probably have responded to the weak economy and declining inflation by temporarily lowering short-term interest rates. This is now impossible. The European Central Bank must make monetary policy for Europe as a whole, an area in which inflation is now above the 2 per cent target ceiling. The Stability and Growth Pact also prevents Germany from using a temporary fiscal stimulus to increase growth and bring down unemployment. Although persistent deficits are harmful in the long term, a temporary rise in the fiscal deficit could in principle provide the stimulus needed to rekindle growth. But the eurozone countries have had to constrain themselves from running deficits because of the potential danger to the common currency.

As an American who has long been sceptical about the economic effects of the euro, I am often asked why a single currency should be good for a large continental economy such as the US and yet not for Europe. The answer is that the US economy has three basic features that make it possible to have a single currency without the harmful effects that now arise in Europe. First, American employees move within the country when demand is relatively weak in a particular region, facilitated by a common language and a culture that regards moving across the country as perfectly normal. Germans are not leaving Germany in large numbers for areas of Europe with faster growth or lower unemployment. Second, wages are much more flexible in the US than in Europe, reducing the decline in regional employment that occurs when demand falls. And third, the US has a federal fiscal system that directly offsets about 40 per cent of the relative decline in any state's gross domestic product by a lower outflow of taxes to Washington and a higher inflow of transfer payments. European fiscal systems are still largely national.

Germany did not decide to embark on the single currency after a careful evaluation of its economic costs and benefits. Helmut Kohl led Germany into the single currency in order to create a stronger political union in continental Europe, a political union that would have common economic, social, defence and foreign policies. The euro would be a symbol of that solidarity and a mechanism for centralising economic power.



 
Found the think tank piece!

Thursday, April 24, 2003
 
Via Neil Gaiman, a Guardian article on how British school textbooks have been rewritten to deemphasize conflicts and stress positive asapects of every nation's history, giving them a pro-unification slant.

'There is a general consensus that we need to teach children that Europe evolved naturally through the organic coming-together of a group of sympathetic nations rather than through a series of tense and bloody clashes between a collection of wildly diverse countries,' she said. 'But Europe's history is about more than commonality; it is about conflict and that should be admitted and even celebrated.'

Soysal's report, Rethinking Nation State Identities in the New Europe, to be published in May, blames the efforts of international organisations such as Unesco, the Council of Europe and the European Commission for going too far in their attempts to wipe prejudice from history textbooks.

'The curriculum certainly did need to be re-examined because its introduction in 1978 reflected the priorities of the Government of the day, and Europe was certainly not among them,' she said.

But in the effort to reassess European history, the union looms larger than any nation state. 'Europe's ideals are promoted above all others in the modern curriculum; nations and regions lose their individual charisma and get equalised vis-à-vis each other within Europe,' she said.

The changes, Soysal believes, involve positive and negative aspects: positive, because textbooks now treat other civilisations in a more comprehensive manner, but negative because they ignore the fact Europe was born out of conflict.



I find it odd and hard to believe that these international organizations would have a huge influence on British education. Anyone knowledgeable care to comment?

I imagine froth coming out of the mouths of our friends over at Samizdata as they read this, or at least the more shrill eu-bashing bloggers that I haven't bothered including in my blogroll.

Neil, however, is amused:

I think it's a lovely way to teach history, missing out all the slaughter and pillage and burning and going straight to the positive warm fuzzy stuff, and I am looking forward to the next round of textbooks.

"People in England and Europe did not get real holidays back then, so the Crusades were started as a way of getting some sunshine and exercise and to help people meet their Islamic counterparts in places like Jerusalem, for multicultural dialogue and a change of air."

"It was forbidden for Christians to lend money for interest, which meant that many Jews became moneylenders. This made them them tremendously popular and respected community members all across Europe."

"In 1588 the Spanish decided to go and visit England, in order to expand England's trading horizons, and a whole Armada of trading vessels set out on a visit. The English were so excited, they lit bonfires and gathered on the South Coast to welcome their Spanish Visitors. They even sent ships out to meet them. Unfortunately, the silly old British weather was against the Spanish, and most of their ships were wrecked and lost before they could land, which left the English very disappointed indeed."



My own take on this is that almost every school textbook I'vre encountered have been utterly worthless, so I can't get too worked up about it.

Wednesday, April 23, 2003
 
What I've been reading recently:
Oliver, Roland: The African experience (1994ish)
Truly a pleasure to read, and the concept of covering the entire history of Africa through standalone essays is brilliant. As for the history, he seriously underplays the damage colonialism caused. Discounts damage/influence of slavery too, but there I don't have an independent opinion, but I think his views are in the minority. He don't belive in diffusion (of agriculture etc) either, and generally ignores Europeans before the 1880s, which is a nice change from other wrtitings on Africa. He's some interesting things to say about trade and political culture, seems smart. And he was apparantly praised by the NY review among others. To summarize, Very well written, insightsful, but some heterodox, and questionable, views.
More later.

Tuesday, April 22, 2003
 
Some things come to mind re this comittee business:

This nicely demonstrates how the the lack of attention paid to the EU is A Very Bad Thing. Why wasn't this an issue years ago? And it still wouldn't if this Swedish scientist (not a journalist!) hadn't made it an isssue.

And wouldn't it be great if the euhacks we have would be more critical and questioning? (Note that I'm not asking for a more eurosceptic slant, I'm asking for less lazness.)

Lack of attention = lack of scrutiny + lack of serious thinking about the EU = no pressure to do well or to reform = lack of checks on the EU from the 4th estate or public opinion.


 
Kinnock's response to the report on Council comittees I wrote about on April 13: attacking the council for being even worse.

After two terms in office in the European Commission - before as Transport Commissioner and presently as Vice President - Neil Kinnock has finally spoken out against the working methods of Council committees.

In an interview published by the Austrian daily Der Standard, Mr Kinnock says "the citizens do not know that there is a secret governing system in Europe. That is the Council with its system of Committees. We have more than 300 formations in which officials from the member states meet and pass decisions. That is the largest source of bureaucracy and the black hole in European democracy".

The attack on Council committees comes shortly after the Commission drew similar fire from a Swedish political scientist, Professor Torbjörn Larsson.



Reacting to the criticism, rather than trying to deflect the criticism would have been nice. On the other hand, it's good the council's flaws comes under scrutiny too, now there's pressure on both to reform. Let's hope this will result in reforms eventually.



 
Um, the comments don't seem to be working. I'll email their support team.

 
I now have a commmenting system thanks to the fine folks at Enetation.

 
I've discovered links to Financial Times expire within less than a weeks time. That's incredibly dumb of them, and incredibly annoying because their coverage of the EU is only equaled by EUobserver, and I can't avoid referencing their stories. But I will try to use alternative sources whenever possible, and make sure to quote generously from FT stories.

 
Well, I'm back. Friday's posts were written in a hurry right before I left. That's the reason for the typos and non-links. I bow my head in shame and apologize to my faithful readers. I've fixed them, but I can't find the link to the think tank thingie. More later.

Friday, April 18, 2003
 
I'll be gone until Monday or Tuesday. Will search for easter eggs with family, and spend quality time, etc. Happy Easter everyone. (Merry? Something else? Whatever.)

See you around.

 
There is actually another blog like mine actually, EU News Digest, though much drier, and with fewer updates. Maybe he's smarter than me though, eh? I put it in my blogrooll some days ago, along wih many others. I've been googling for eu-related blogs, a lot.

 
>>The days are over in Europe when only leaders of big states get together to prepare common positions ahead of important European summits.<<
Was that ever the case? They had good reason anyway, considering this, per FT:
>>But M. Giscard d'Estaing, whose 105-member convention has been working on the proposals for more than a year, said: "One thing to take into account is the number of states, but we also have to take into account their populations, because we operate in a democracy here.<<
Link
What the're arging about is the harebrained idea of replacing the six-month rotating presidency of the European Council with a president serving for a minimum of five years, supported by the big five, plus Denmark, Sweden and Poland, opposed by the rest
(18 small states.) This think tank lists the many flaws of the scheme, better than I could. I need to put the think tanks in my link roll - though most of their position papers aren't as good as one may think, they're mostly editorials with eurospeak really.

Thursday, April 17, 2003
 
Around the blogs
Maria Farrell on a parliament resolution on the third pillar.

Regular readers of this blog will know that I have two great interests in life these days; traffic data retention and the undemocratic nature of the European Third Pillar. This EP opinion is a round-up of similar frustrations;
- 9/11 fall-out has caused a huge increase in activity on justice and home affairs at the EU level,
- the EP's role in decision-making on justice and home affairs is limited to rubber-stamping and provides no real democratic accountability,
- member states are using the JHA Council to advance domestic agendas and do policy-laundering,
On 3rd Pillar decision-making in general, Parliament said; "The lack of public accessibility, together with a lack of democratic control over Council,is leading to an unacceptable restriction of the principle of democracy. This calls into question the legal legitimacy of Council measures with a bearing on constitutional law."
An interesting point. Not being a lawyer myself, constitutional or otherwise, I'd love to hear more about this question and whether constitutional challenges might be brought to bear on the applicability of decisions made by the JHA Council.

Parliament also says changes in criminal justice policy are not being subjected to the relevant European legal instruments protecting human rights:
- proper safeguards of individual rights (under Article 13 of the EC Treaty) must temper criminal justice co-operation, especially on the European Arrest Warrant,
- a framework decision on procedural safeguards is needed for suspects and defendants in criminal proceedings.
- a 'EuroRights' body of independent defence practitioners in criminal law should be set up.
- there should be full democratic scrutiny of Europol, so it is fully accountable to the EP in partnership with national parliaments and subject to judicial control of the European Court of Justice.

The EP also warned the Council and Member States of the danger of "an overwhelming obsession with illegal entrants."



This in indeed disturbing. There's a wider context here: As more and more decisions get made on the EU level, the democratic deficit gets more and more unacceptable, this is especially true when we've got to questions of civil rights, etc. This underlines that the democratic deficit is no longer something we can live with, , if it ever was, trading democracy for efficiency or whatever is not a fair bargain. More later.



 
FT on the signing. Quite well written, captures the moment, some wry comments. Makes you realize how dry and well, AP-like most articles on the EU are. Why is that?

Wednesday, April 16, 2003
 
Today is the signing of the accession treaty. A meta-event to be sure, but a historical meta-event. I don't have time to write down any longer reflections on this, but it's a great day for Europe to be sure. For all its faults, the EU has been a tremendous positive influence on the history of Central Europe, and therefore Western Europe too. We're all in the same boat, and Union was the logical outcome.



 
I should mention the Maltese election a couple of days ago was won by the pro-EU government, eaning it's certain they'll join.

 
Well, what I said essentially:
Holy crap, I'm getting linked and read! A warm welcome to all my readers.

Despite udating every day, and mostly with ultiple posts, I feel like I'm neglecting the blog. These are heady days for the EU, enlargement, the constitutional convention, the crisis in transatlantic relations, the ero issue, and lots of other things too. History in the making, etc. Interesting times, for good or ill. S lots of updates coming.

 
Where's my posts for yesterday? What the....?

Monday, April 14, 2003

 
This is rather startling< Last week it was disclosed that two retired three-star generals -- Vladislav Achalov (a former paratrooper and specialist in urban warfare) and Igor Maltsev (a specialist in air defense) -- visited Baghdad recently and were awarded medals by Hussein. The awards were handed out by Iraqi Defense Minister Sultan Khashim Akhmed.
It was reported that the retired generals helped Hussein prepare a war plan to defeat the Americans. Achalov confirmed he was in Baghdad just before the war and received medals from Hussein for services rendered. He also told journalists that the defense of Baghdad was well organized, U.S. tanks would be burned if they enter the city and U.S. infantry would be slaughtered. According to Achalov, the only way the allies could ever take Baghdad and other Iraqi cities was to raze them to the ground by carpet bombing. >

Sunday, April 13, 2003
 
hungary, accession
84% yes, 16% no, but turnout was a disturbingly low 46%. Here's BBC's take on it. So the naysayers stayed home rather than voting no.

 
And here's one reason why this is a Very Bad Thing (besides little things like the democratic deficit, eurocreep, etc):

The EU Parliament yesterday (Tuesday) granted the 2001 budget discharge to the European Commission. MEPs adopted socialist Paul Casaca’s report with 440 votes in favour, 67 against and 14 abstentions, recommending the discharge despite a negative report on the expenditures carried by the Court of Auditors last year.
The main criticism centred on the Commission's accountability system and the sums of money that has been under spent, especially regarding the ‘structural funds’ of national EU governments (programmes which finance regions to bring themselves up to an EU-wide standard on education, training and small business development).



Granted, things weren't quite as bad as in 1999, but I (and others) think the main reason they're letting the commission off the hook is that they feel the EU can't afford another constitutional crisis and paralyzed executive, especially with all the accession referendums, but before that the negotiations, the Irish vote, the Convention - just generally. The Liberals pretty much admits it:

The Liberal group believed that refusing to rubber-stamp the accounts now would make a bad impression on future member states - and would come at a time when the Commission is trying to carry out internal reform to counteract these criticisms.




 
Now here's why it's good to read EUobserver (or this blog!):
I'm quoting extensively, because this is a must-read but read the whole thing.

A study published today by a Swedish political scientist sheds light on the hitherto shady world of the EU committee system.
Professor Torbjörn Larsson's 178-page book is the first attempt to catalogue just how the European Commission goes about its daily business, who knows what is going on, who does not and who should.
There are an astounding 1352 different groups in and around the Commission - about which the "overview is rather lacking" as the Swede delicately puts it.
For example, in DG enterprise where much of the study is focussed, 40% of the 120 groups were unaccounted for. Nobody knows if they are active or not.
[snip]
But how easy was it for the Swedish pioneer to gather such information? It took him two years to carry out the study which focussed mainly on DG enterprise.
[snip]
The Commission has huge influence over the expert groups. It can decide whether member state experts should participate, whether to "stop and start" the group if it not following the line it wants and what exactly the agenda should be. "Few official rules govern this part of the EU decision-making process", notes the book.
It can use these groups not only as a fig leaf but also for agenda setting and mobilising support for the issues that it wants to see the EU taking a role in.
"In many areas the Commission has managed to expand the European competencies by starting very with very informal and exploratory discussion among the Member States", says the book.
[snip]
These numerous committees, groups, working parties wield huge influence on EU policy-making. Professor Larsson suggests that by the time the Commission table a proposal for legislation to the council and parliament, the idea may have been "pre-cooking" in the whole comitology procedure for up to five years.
The book also points out the fact that the European Parliament is not involved in any way in the process. "It is rare to find MEPs actively participating in the preparatory processes preceding the presentation of proposals to the council and parliament."
[snip]
Every government needs informal structures, says the professor but the Commission's is particularly obscure. He says that member states often have no idea what is going on, which of their own civil servant sits in what group, or even how many types of groups there are.
He suggests that it should be public knowledge how many committees there are, who is in them and how often they meet. In his native Sweden where there are about 300 committees around the government, such information is public knowledge.



You can read the whole report online! (Huge pdf file.) (Yes, in English of course.)



 
hungary, accession
The results are in and a full 80 percent of Hungarians voted yes.
Some quick comments: There's some correlation between the order of referendums and how positive the electorates have been, with Hungary one of the first and the sceptic Baltics last. With a narrow victory the other yes campaigns would maybe have lost some momentum, and now they've gained some. I don't think it really makes any difference though, (didn't help in 1995) but a no somewhere could make a difference.
Also, I gotta say this feels quite enheartening. I may have my reservations about the EU, but right now I feel like a Young Federalist. This is great.
I'll try to find some good English language report, hold on a sec...